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Tensions in the Horn of Africa
Summary: the Horn of Africa is an overlooked but crucial region riven by factionalism, tribal animosity, a bitter colonial legacy and the intervention of powerful regional players including the UAE.
We thank Hossam el-Hamalawy for today’s newsletter selected from his Egypt Security Sector Report. Hossam is a journalist and scholar-activist, currently based in Germany. He was involved in the Egyptian labour movement and was one of the organisers of the 2011 revolution. Follow his writings on Substack and Twitter.
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I interviewed Somali journalist Abdurahman Warsame on the ongoing tensions in the Horn of Africa, and their historical roots. Below are some of the key points from our chat.
- It’s rare that poor countries on the Red Sea, one of the world’s most important waterways, receive so much media attention in the United States but that’s what has been happening for weeks now. The US war with the Huthis - and the disruption to trade - is almost daily in the news but more recently Republicans were outraged over Rep. Ilhan Omar’s speech to the Somali community, vowing to defend Somalia’s sovereignty over Ethiopia’s attempt to take a piece of land for a military base and seaport access.
- The ongoing dispute between Ethiopia, Somalia, and the self-declared state of Somaliland has taken a new turn with a recent agreement. This agreement involves Ethiopia and Somaliland, where Ethiopia gains access to the Berbara seaport and a military base in exchange for recognising Somaliland as a sovereign state. This development has stirred tensions, particularly upsetting Somalia's recognised government.
- The term “Somaliland” harks back to British Somaliland during the colonial era. Djibouti was under French rule, Northern Somalia under British rule, and Southern Somalia under Italian rule. The Ogaden region in Ethiopia and Northeast Kenya also share a majority ethnic Somali population, united by a common language and religion. However, tribal affiliations play a crucial role in the dynamics, a factor we'll explore below.
- In 1960, British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland gained independence, culminating in the creation of the Republic of Somalia. In 1977, Somalia's dictator Siad Barre attempted to annex Ethiopia's Ogaden region, triggering Soviet and Cuban intervention and severely impacting Somalia's economy. The state collapsed in 1990, leading to a prolonged civil war, particularly in the south. A major tribe in the north subsequently declared Somaliland as an independent entity, citing a brief period of British Somaliland's independence before joining the south.
- The aftermath of three decades of UN political processes resulted in tribal-based divisions, with factions declaring themselves independent states. Last year saw further division, creating distinct entities within Somaliland, including SSC, a tribal group with historical ties to British colonial resistance.
- Somaliland's territorial setbacks, notably the loss of the area recognised as a federal state by the Somali government, have spurred the leadership to seek recognition. Ethiopia, grappling with internal conflicts, views this agreement as an opportunity for a diplomatic victory amid upcoming elections. The UAE plays a pivotal role, driven by its broader regional ambitions, particularly in controlling key ports for economic and strategic reasons.
- UAE's involvement extends to supporting Somaliland financially, as evident in the construction of a military base. Somaliland, lacking resources, heavily relies on the UAE. The agreement is not just about Ethiopia gaining access to the Berbera port; it also involves the UAE's financial and infrastructural support in building the military base. But to be frank, it’s important to point out that so far Ethiopia and Somaliland don’t have the capacity to make this project a reality. The military base is some distance from Ethiopia’s border so there would have to be a way to connect them which means the project is much bigger than what is proposed. And Ethiopia’s army is busy fighting wars within the country.
- Somalia's recognised government struggles with limited control, confined to the capital Mogadishu. Poor relations with the Puntland region and Ethiopia's presence in southern Somalia add complexities. Internal divisions are exacerbated, as seen in the resignation of Somaliland's defence minister over the deal.
- Civil wars plague Somalia, Ethiopia, and Somaliland. Somalia's recognised government, a mere title due to UN recognition, lacks effective control. Ethiopia faces internal strife in Tigray and Amhara, pushing it towards potential famine. Somaliland lost a significant portion of its territory in October 2022.
- Egypt's vocal support for Somalia's central government highlights regional dynamics, but its influence is constrained by previous losses in the Nile dam issue. Military intervention is not an option for Egypt. In the wider region, Sudan is also in a civil war.
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